Posted on 05/20/2008 7:44:34 AM PDT by Clive
You may have heard earlier this month that global warming is now likely to take a break for a decade or more. There will be no more warming until 2015, perhaps later.
Climate scientist Noel Keenlyside, leading a team from Germany's Leibniz Institute of Marine Science and the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology, for the first time entered verifiable data on ocean circulation cycles into one of the U. N.'s climate supercomputers, and the machine spit out a projection that there will be no more warming for the foreseeable future.
Of course, Mr. Keenlyside-- long a defender of the man-made global warming theory -- was quick to add that after 2015 (or perhaps 2020), warming would resume with a vengeance.
Climate alarmists the world over were quick to add that they had known all along there would be periods when the Earth's climate would cool even as the overall trend was toward dangerous climate change.
Sorry, but that is just so much backfill.
There may have been the odd global-warming scientist in the past decade who allowed that warming would pause periodically in its otherwise relentless upward march, but he or she was a rarity.
If anything, the opposite is true: Almost no climate scientist who backed the alarmism ever expected warming would take anything like a 10 or 15-year hiatus.
Last year, in its oft-quoted report on global warming, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted a 0.3-degree C rise in temperature in the coming decade -- not a cooling or even just temperature stability.
In its previous report in 2001, the IPCC prominently displaced the so-called temperature "hockey stick" that purported to show temperature pretty much plateauing for the thousand years before 1900, then taking off in the 20th Century in a smooth upward line. No 10-year dips backwards were foreseen.
It is drummed into us, ad nauseum, that the IPCC represents 2,500 scientists who together embrace a "consensus" that man-made global warming is a "scientific fact;" and as recently as last year, they didn't see this cooling coming. So the alarmists can't weasel out of this by claiming they knew all along such anomalies would occur.
This is not something any alarmist predicted, and it showed up in none of the UN's computer projections until Mr. Keenlyside et al. were finally able to enter detailed data into their climate model on past ocean current behaviour.
Less well-known is that global temperatures have already been falling for a decade. All of which means, that by 2015 or 2020, when warming is expected to resume, we will have had nearly 20 years of fairly steady cooling.
Saints of the new climate religion, such as Al Gore, have stated that eight of the 10 years since 1998 are the warmest on record. Even if that were true, none has been as warm as 1998, which means the trend of the past decade has been downward, not upward.
Last year, for instance, saw a drop in the global average temperature of nearly 0.7 degrees C (the largest single-year movement up or down since global temperature averages have been calculated). Despite advanced predictions that 2007 would be the warmest year on record, made by such UN associates as Britain's Hadley Centre, a government climate research agency, 2007 was the coolest year since at least 1993.
According to the U. S. National Climatic Data Center, the average temperature of the global land surface in January 2008 was below the 20th-Century mean for the first time since 1982.
Also in January, Southern Hemisphere sea ice coverage was at its greatest summer level (January is summer in the Southern Hemisphere) in the past 30 years.
Neither the 3,000 temperature buoys that float throughout the world's oceans nor the eight NASA satellites that float above our atmosphere have recorded appreciable warming in the past six to eight years.
Even Rajendra Pachauri, the head of the IPCC, reluctantly admitted to Reuters in January that there has been no warming so far in the 21st Century.
Does this prove that global warming isn't happening, that we can all go back to idling our SUVs 24/7? No. But it should introduce doubt into the claim that the science of global warming is "settled."
lgunter@shaw.ca
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Ok, so the trend is going to take a break for a bit. That’ll buy some time so they don’t have to keep answering such pesky questions about why the current data doesn’t support the theories. Maybe it’ll give them enough time to answer the fact the the previous years data doesnt support the theory either. They might even be able to come up with the answer to the nagging question of when the ‘trend’ actually began in the first place and why there’s no data to support whether or not it ever actually began in the first place.
Not adding circulation is the same thing that fooled the cold fusion junk science kooks too. Circulation doesn't cool anything though, just moves the heat. So if Earth is getting warmer where did the heat get moved to? Where is it hiding? If they can't account for it some place then it doesn't exist.
If the sea freezes over, reducing the number of patches of open water, the bears will not be able to hunt. Their population will decline.
Polar bears trapped beneath thick Arctic ice may drown, and their bodies will pollute the delicate marine environment beneath the sea ice.
I offer to perform a study for merely costs plus a humble per diem to determine how many holes we need to blast in the ice to save the bears. I will conduct the study on site from a suitable vessel. I will compare the Arctic environment in the Northern summer to the winter environment in the Caribbean or in the Sea of Cortez near Muleje or La Paz.
The UN can use my data to develop effective nonjudgmental policies to save the bears. I will need a Freeper crew, too.
I love how the Dems refused to do anything about Social Security, because 2018 was so far away. Now, Global Warming won’t even “start again” until 2015 and it might already be too late to act.
Bookmark for later viewing.
I am in for just a meager stipend that equals the cost of Jet-A fuel that Al Gore burns each year in his travels.
I am not amused as I sit here in my climate-controlled home with the furnace pumping “warm” air to keep out the freezing cold on this 20th day of May.
Were it not for Iran, Global Warming, and Evolution there wouldn’t be much traffic on this BBS.
In the spirit of your offer, I think we need a global conference to review the data. Let's not be extravagent. Let's keep within the confines of the UN IPCC and hold our conference for a month in Bali with appropriate per diems all around.
So how long until the next round of global cooling alarmism starts? Any predictions, FReepers? Especially from those of you old enough to remember (as I do) being subjected to global cooling scare stories in elementary school.
The UN needs to average in Al Gore’s temperature to average in to their data. Anyone got a huge rectal thermometer?
Yes. But don't get too excited yet. His prominent place in the MSM headlines and school brainwashing programs will be taken by John Edwards, who, as we post, is realizing the great opportunity this all presents to promote himself as the new savior of humankind. He will proudly sermonize to the adoring MSM from the steps of his energy-guzzling 28,000 square foot home, nestled in several acres of frequently mowed lawn that he helpfully had cleared of the dense forest of pesky carbon dioxide-consuming trees that formerly lived there. It will be plain for all to see that he is making a great personal effort to tailor his lifestyle around the urgent need to stave off the horror of global cooling.
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